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NBC Off by $70 on Expert's View about $200-a-Barrel Oil

     If it bleeds, it leads. But if it doesn’t bleed, just pretend it does.


     That might have been what NBC correspondent Tom Costello was doing when seeking expert commentary on a segment about record-high oil prices and a Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) oil forecast of $150 to $200 barrel.


      “For drivers already in sticker shock at the pump, a dire prediction today for what lies ahead. Goldman Sachs is predicting oil could surge to $150, even $200 a barrel within two years,” Costello said. “No surprise, says analyst John Kilduff.”


      “The bad news on the supply front just keeps coming at us every day, pushing prices ever higher at the gasoline pump,” Kilduff said on the May 6 “Nightly News.”


      But Kilduff, who is also a CNBC contributor and the vice president of risk management for MF Global (NYSE:MF), isn’t predicting oil prices at those levels.


      “I’m not going to $200; I’m not even go to $150, but I think somewhere in the $130s should be the top of this whole run,” Kilduff said on CNBC’s May 6 “Kudlow & Company,” contradicting what Costello reported.


     A Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH) forecast that received very little media attention predicted oil would drop to $70 a barrel, according to “Kudlow & Company” host Larry Kudlow..


      “The Call” host Melissa Francis gave Kilduff an opportunity to clarify his position. She asked Kilduff what was more likely - $200-barrel oil in two years or $75-barrel oil in four years. He said he thought oil at $200 a barrel within two years was “less likely” than oil falling to $75 a barrel within four years. He explained why oil would peak at his target price of $138, then fall.


     “If equities can really come back into favor, a lot of this speculative money will come out of the market,” Kilduff said on the May 7 “The Call.” “And I think one of the key things as well is what happens to China after the Olympics – do they really ratchet down on the growth they’ve gone through and do they raise prices at the pump? You know China’s demand is up 5 percent quarter-on-quarter, year-on-year because they subsidize so much of the price. If they raise their price – that would be a demand killer.”